Waitlist Sizing Analysis
Purpose of this file: answer, in concrete numbers, the question “how many dogs do we need on the waitlist to fully occupy a groomer?” This is a reference sheet for human understanding, not an agent-automated calculation — the actual hire decision still follows the revenue-based trigger in scheduling-procedures → Using the Waitlist to Justify a Hire.
Why This Is the Right Metric to Track
Per the Pricing Philosophy decision in business-goals-and-milestones, the salon’s model is deliberately scarcity-driven: a full book with a healthy waitlist is proof of demand, not a problem to solve. That makes waitlist size a leading indicator for two decisions at once — when to raise prices, and when to hire. This file is about the second half: translating “waitlist is healthy” into an actual headcount target Kendra can watch for.
The Core Insight: A Waitlist Isn’t a One-Time Fill
A groomer’s book isn’t filled once and done — it’s filled by recurring clients who each come back every few weeks. So the number of unique dogs needed to keep a groomer fully booked is much smaller than the number of grooms they perform in a month, because each dog fills multiple slots over time.
Unique Dogs Needed = (Dogs/Day × Operating Days/Month) × Rebooking Frequency (weeks) ÷ 4.33
- Dogs/Day × Operating Days/Month = total grooms the groomer needs to perform in a month to be fully booked (their monthly capacity)
- Rebooking Frequency = how many weeks pass between a given dog’s visits (industry-standard range is every 4–8 weeks depending on breed/coat)
- ÷ 4.33 = converts “weeks between visits” into “visits per month” (4.33 = 52 weeks ÷ 12 months)
The longer a dog’s grooming cycle, the more unique dogs are needed to fill the same number of monthly slots — a salon full of low-frequency clients (e.g., 8-week short-coat dogs) needs roughly 2x the roster of one full of high-frequency clients (e.g., 4-week doodles), for the exact same daily capacity.
Open Assumption — Not Yet Documented Anywhere Else
We do not have a real salon-wide average rebooking frequency yet. The waitlist log template (scheduling-procedures → Waitlist Record Fields) already captures “expected frequency” per dog, but no aggregate number exists because there’s no booking history yet. Every table below is run across the documented 4/6/8-week range as a stand-in until real data exists.
Action item once the salon is open: after ~90 days of real bookings, pull the actual average frequency across the active client roster and replace the 4/6/8 range below with a single real number. This is now also logged as an open decision in business-goals-and-milestones.
Inputs (Pulled From Existing Vault Files)
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Full capacity (ceiling) | 8 dogs/groomer/day | revenue-projections |
| Moderate capacity (realistic, sustained) | 6 dogs/groomer/day — this is what the Year-1 goal is actually built on | revenue-projections |
| Operating days/month (5-day week) | 22 | revenue-projections |
| Rebooking frequency range | Every 4 / 6 / 8 weeks | scheduling-procedures (documented range, no real average yet) |
Reference Table 1 — Full Capacity (8 dogs/day when working)
This is the ceiling scenario — useful for knowing the absolute max roster size a fully-booked groomer could ever need.
| Schedule | Grooms/Month | Dogs needed @ 4-wk cycle | @ 6-wk cycle | @ 8-wk cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day/week | 35 | 33 | 49 | 65 |
| 2 days/week (part-time) | 70 | 65 | 98 | 130 |
| 3 days/week (part-time) | 106 | 98 | 146 | 195 |
| 4 days/week (part-time) | 141 | 130 | 195 | 260 |
| 5 days/week (full-time) | 176 | 163 | 244 | 325 |
Reference Table 2 — Moderate / Realistic Capacity (6 dogs/day when working)
This is the more useful planning number — it’s the sustained rate the Year-1 goal is actually built on (revenue-projections explicitly flags 8/day as the ceiling, 6/day as realistic), so it’s a better target for “when is the waitlist big enough” than the theoretical max.
| Schedule | Grooms/Month | Dogs needed @ 4-wk cycle | @ 6-wk cycle | @ 8-wk cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day/week | 26 | 24 | 37 | 49 |
| 2 days/week (part-time) | 53 | 49 | 73 | 98 |
| 3 days/week (part-time) | 79 | 73 | 110 | 146 |
| 4 days/week (part-time) | 106 | 98 | 146 | 195 |
| 5 days/week (full-time) | 132 | 122 | 183 | 244 |
Headline Numbers (Best Working Estimate)
Until real data replaces the 4/6/8 range, use the 6-week column as the working assumption — it’s the middle of the documented range and a common industry rule of thumb for a mixed-breed client base.
| Hire Type | Working Estimate (6-wk cycle, moderate capacity) |
|---|---|
| Full-time groomer (5 days/week) | ~180–185 dogs on a recurring roster |
| Part-time groomer (3 days/week) | ~110 dogs on a recurring roster |
| Part-time groomer (2 days/week) | ~75 dogs on a recurring roster |
Important Nuance: Roster Size Is Not the Same as “People on the Waitlist Right Now”
These tables answer “how big does the recurring client base need to be to keep a groomer fully booked long-term,” not “how many people need to be literally sitting on the waitlist the day we decide to hire.” Per scheduling-procedures and the 6-Month Goals in business-goals-and-milestones, the actual hire trigger is a revenue projection, not a headcount:
- The waitlist only needs to be consistently non-empty with a clear upward trend — not already at the full 110–185 number
- Kendra totals expected price × expected frequency across the current waitlist to project monthly revenue
- Once that projection comfortably covers the new hire’s cost (ongoing-expenses), the hire is justified
- The new groomer’s book then starts small (easiest/most reliable waitlisted clients first) and grows toward the full roster size over several months — see the Month 4–8 ramp in revenue-projections’s 24-Month Trajectory, where the 2nd groomer starts at ~1 dog/day and climbs to near-capacity by Month 8
So the practical use of this file is as a destination number, not a hiring trigger threshold: it tells Kendra what “fully booked” looks like once a groomer is ramped, which is useful for judging whether the current waitlist trend can realistically get a new hire there within a reasonable ramp period (roughly the 4–5 months the model already assumes).
How to Use This Metric Going Forward
- Track current waitlist count against the working estimate (~110 for part-time, ~180 for full-time) as a rough “how close are we” gauge
- Once real bookings exist, log actual rebooking frequency per dog and replace the 4/6/8 assumption with the real average — this will tighten every number in this file
- Revisit this file alongside each hiring decision (2nd through 4th groomer) to sanity-check that projected waitlist demand can realistically fill the new hire’s book within a few months, not just cover their cost on paper